The refinancing risks faced by the region when lending in commercial banks are examined in the article. The author analyzes the correlation of risks and the effectiveness of implementation of regional state programs. The main problem lies in the interrelation between cost of debt parameters and qualitative indicators of the effectiveness of such programs. In the present conditions the main criterion for the effectiveness of regional borrowing is the ability to provide a balanced debt policy. It is related to the needs of the region and should not have the cash gaps, overpayments of interests in order to ensure effective spending of borrowed financial resources. The basis for a balanced debt policy in the region is the analysis and consideration of the related risks, the ability to anticipate and avoid various crisis situations. The work presents approaches to the assessment of refinancing risk of the region-borrower (on the example of Tver region crediting in commercial banks). The probability that the debt will not be able to be refinanced over a long period is insignificant in terms of the balanced policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the reduction of the rate of inflation. Current trends in the state fiscal policy allow us to make a conclusion about the low percentage risk. In the credit market there is a trend to lower interest rates; debt refinancing is going to be made at rates not higher but lower than the current ones.
RUKOBRATSKIY PAVEL B.
Tver branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Publications of the author
In the journalp. 37-45
The analysis of the problem of regional debt in conditions of reducing budget crediting
P.B. RUKOBRATSKIY
The article considers possible scenarios of development of the situation around the regional public debt in the context of the reduction of budgetary lending to regions by the federal center. The public debt is the main source of financing of deficit of budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation at federal, regional and municipal levels. The issue of regional public debt is paid great attention to by the scientific community and analysts in the authorities of the constituent entities of Russia. The interest to the problem is quite natural taking into consideration the fact that since 2008 the consolidated regional budgets have had a deficit. Since 2009 the federal budget has been implemented with deficit; the only exception was 2011. The conclusions are made by the authors on the basis of the analysis of the status and structure of regional debt in the years 2011-2016, the state of regional debt in Russia and countries of the Organization for economic cooperation and development, possibilities and constraints of the federal budget. Comparing the indicators of the member countries of the Organization for economic cooperation and development and Russia, the author concludes that it is advisable for regions to reduce the rate of increase of the share of loans in the structure of regional debt through bank lending. The further increase in the share of loans is rather typical for unitary states that do not have the tools for more flexible and cheaper borrowing in the debt securities market. The policy of of increasing budget loans in the structure of regional debt pursued by the RF government is quite logical taking into consideration the significant reduction in the burden on regional budgets in debt servicing.
