Baburin Vyacheslav L.

Russia and the world are experiencing a pandemic that is unprecedented in modern history in terms of the number of cases and socio-economic consequences. The article discusses the features of the statistical accounting of morbidity and mortality and how much they could affect the available estimates. The authors believe that the fixed incidence of the population obeys the laws of the distribution of innovations and depends on the structure and interaction within regional communities. According to the above calculations, if current conditions remain, the maximum number of infections can exceed 160 thousand people, and the end of the epidemic should be expected no earlier than mid-June. We are now at a stage of exponential growth and diffusion across the country. In general, in Russia, the closure and bankruptcy of 50-60% of firms in 2020, according to the most pessimistic scenario, is fraught with a fall in GDP by 3-10% for the year.