The article provides the author’s system for the fair appraisal of Russian oil, including the list of indicators for regular publication.The author proposes to use the formula for oil settlements that includes a price index for the standard oil Brent,formed on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX),or Dubai,formed on the DME,and a differential (premium or discount) mutually agreed between Russian producers and importers. During the post-Soviet period, foreign countries controlled the price of Russian energy resources. Russian oil companies export oil according to formulas that include quotes from Platts, a US-based pricing agency. The price formulas are used for the settlement of Russian oil deliveries not only for exports but also for the domestic market.The ongoing depreciation of Russian oil at half the world price is a «challenge» to act vigorously to change approaches to price formation.The restrictions imposed by G7 countries and the EU on Russian oil deliveries by sea, the imposition of price ceilings, non-market pricing methods, and the manipulation of price caps for sales combine a signal for an urgent transition to a national system of Russian oil pricing, involving the consolidation of actual transaction data from Russian producers themselves.
Safonova Tamara Yu.
«Independent Analytical Agencyof the Oil and Gas Sector» LLC
Publications of the author
In the journalp. 48-54
Optimization of Russian oil exports under the existing embargo and price ceiling
T.Y. Safonova
The article analyzes the sequential events during the implementation of the sanctions,Russia's role in global oil and gas supplies,and the dependence on changes in Russian oil export volumes and the average monthly prices of Brent and Urals crude oil.The author proposes recommendations for avoiding the loss of export potential during the anti-Russian sanctions period.Bythe end of 2022,the European Union's strategy of shifting to renewable energy sources,the reduction of Russian gas supplies amid sanctions pressure,and terrorist attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipeline systems led to an energy shortage in the global market and a global energy crisis.The decrease in oil shipments from Russia to the European Union can be compensated by the countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Russian oil falling under sanctions may be directed to Asia-Pacific region (APAC) countries.The cooperation of OPEC+ countries is essential to avoid unjustified losses during the anti-Russian sanctions period and avoid confrontation and competition among friendly countries in the Asia-Pacific market.The author proposes to form an action plan to coordinate changes in Eurasian cargo flows with the increased presence of Russia in the Asia-Pacific market, along with a simultaneous increase in the supply of resources by OPEC countries (replacing those fallen under anti-Russian sanctions) to the European Union.
