The Caspian region has long been a crossroads for transport corridors due to its geographic location.After the USSR collapsed,the region experienced dramaticgeopolitical transformations.In the early days of the post-Soviet Caspian-adjacent states, they sought to diversify their routes to external markets and reduce their dependence on transit through Russia and other countries.Border and civil conflicts in the new states of Central Asia and Transcaucasia aggravated their transport isolation, sometimes resulting in transport blockades. At present, attention to the region's transport communications is aggravated by the region's energy resources; the historical competition for regional leadership between such Middle Eastern powers as Iran and Turkey; the growing interests of China,which sees the region as part of the Belt and Road project and has invested significant resources in the region's energy sector; the European Union's desire to establish alternative logistics routes bypassing Russia; Russia's turn to the East and the strategically aggravated need for accelerated expansion of the «North-South» ITCcapacity.Despite all the peculiarities of relations between the Caspian countries, they are all interested in sustainable transport partnership, expressed in the intensification of multivariate logistics development projects, overcoming infrastructure, tariff and non-tariff barriers,as well as the promotion of horizontal links between various levels of publicand private regional structures.An additional incentive for the meridional transport routes development is the increased load on the ports of the Russian Far East basin and reaching the limits of the Eastern polygon of Russian Railways,which will contribute to the redirection of some cargo flows to the “North-South”ITC.
TURAEVA MADINA O.
Institute of Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Publications of the author
In the journalp. 106-112
Peculiarities of Vietnam’s economic development: prospects for cooperation with Russia
M.O. Turaeva, M.G. Polozkov
The article analyzes the results that the Vietnamese economyhas achieved 35 years after starting the reforms,and looks at howVietnam's modern trade and investment cooperation with other countries is being built.Vietnam's contribution to global value chains is concentrated in labor-intensive industries.To date,in the list of countries importing the supplies to Vietnam,Russia's position is in the second ten.Russia is also in the third ten of the list of countries,to which Vietnamese exports are supplied.Despite the fact that after signing the Free Trade Agreement between the EAEU and Vietnam in 2015, the nominal trade turnover between Russia and Vietnam has been steadily increasing, the share of Russia in Vietnamese exports and imports has not yet exceeded 1%. Under the new anti-Russian sanctions of 2022, there are disrupted supply chains, the threat of losing the aircraft fleet, problems with licensing companies and individuals; the refusal of international insurance companies to work with carriers of certain countries has complicated, in particular, the working conditions of Vietnamese and Russian companies. Meanwhile, Russia's desire to create a new geography for trade and economic cooperation can become a platform for improving the situation with Russian-Vietnamese cooperation.
p. 87-92
Dynamics of developing transport and logistics relations in the Сentral Asian region
M.O. TURAEVA
Limited natural resources, internal socio-economic and political crises, and the low level of infrastructure development, especially in the first years after gaining sovereignty, have affected the trade, transport, and logistics vulnerability of Central Asian countries. Trade between the People’s Republic of China and European countries became a determining factor in developing the region’s transport routes. More than 90 % of freight is delivered by sea, but the role of land routes has increased significantly since 2020. China faces the pressing issues of developing the economies of its western provinces, especially the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The development of land routes coincides with the implementation of the strategic objectives for the Silk Road Economic Belt, as well as the interests of the countries whose territories these transport routes run through. The countries of the Central Asian region are striving to participate in transit and have been very active at interstate meetings, discussing cargo delivery options. This issue became especially relevant after the sharp decline in China’s use of transit through the territory of the Russian Federation. Of many proposed transport routes and corridors, the most promising are the Trans-Afghan Railway and the “Middle Corridor”. The successful construction of the transport and logistics will largely depend on developing relationships with Afghanistan’s political leadership and the PRC’s attention to infrastructure projects.
p. 73-81
ON SPECIFICITY OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC MODELS IN THE POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES
L.B. VARDOMSKY, M.O. TURAEVA
The article attempts to identify the types of models used in countries and to establish which of them and in which countries have been most successful. The study of economic development models used in different countries is important firstly, to identify the most successful world practices for their development and application. It is also necessary for building economic relations and expanding mutually beneficial cooperation with countries for mutual adaptation of economies. This is especially important within the framework of integration associations that require coordination of programs and strategies for the socio-economic development of the participating countries. In theoretical terms, this explains the nature of economic development or stagnation, helps understanding of how to adjust the models of national development. In our view, the economic model is the result of linking, through the appropriate institutions, the goals of national socio-economic development with the available material and intellectual resources, peculiarities of the geo-economic position, cultural traditions, on the one hand, and trends in the development of world politics and economics, national security issues on the other. Post-Soviet countries have common initial conditions for the formation of sovereign economies. The movement towards the polycentric structure of the world economy is aggravating international political and economic relations. The coronavirus pandemic has raised the profile of the quality of governance and hit the incomes of both hydrocarbon producing countries and exporters of labor and services.
The article considers some intermediate results of Kyrgyzstan's presence in the EEU. The Republic has long gone to join this integration project. After a period of 3,5 years of its entry into the Union, publications by the EEC and Kyrgyz official statistical services show positive socio-economic results, stable growth of the economy, solving many problems of the public sector and the minimal inflation values. Meanwhile, a critical look at the indicators and a comparison of data from national and international institutions does not allow us to make so unequivocal conclusions. Over the several years that the country has been part of the integration association, the inflow of remittances relative to gross domestic product has grown from 29,9% to 33,2%. Improving the competitiveness of the labor force from Kyrgyzstan in the labor markets of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union is one of the important results of the republic joining this international organization (as well as the ensuing increase in remittances). In addition, support of the Russian Federation is very significant for the republic (the supply of petroleum products at competitive prices for Kyrgyzstan, as well as the volume of gratuitous assistance provided, including for customs and border control). However, despite the positive dynamics of a number of indicators, which is customarily interpreted as the effects of the entry of the Republic into the Eurasian economic union, trade with the countries of the Union is growing more slowly than trade with China, which is already the largest trade and investment partner of the Republic.
p. 94-100
Traditional and new instruments for Chinese presence strengthening in Central Asia
S.P. Glinkina, M.O. Turaeva, A.A. Yakovlev
In this article, traditional and new tools are being considered, which are increasingly used by China to promote a large-scale integration initiative, Belts and Paths. The authors believe that the internal problems of China's economic development played a significant role in the development of this project. The most important of them for today is the problem of overproduction, manifested as a result of a slowdown in economic growth, and the accumulation share that has been excessively high for decades, leading to overheating of the economy, the emergence of surplus production capacities. The authors consider three possible ways of solving the problem that arose in the Chinese leadership: the closure of enterprises, the transfer of some problems to the state (for example, the unification of unprofitable enterprises into the group), and the development of cooperation with various international partners in the search for new markets. Particular attention is paid to the tools that China successfully tests in the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia to strengthen its positions in the region.
p. 99-102
Prospects for the development of the Eurasian transport space in the context of current geopolitical paradigm
M.O. TURAEVA
The article examines the prospects for the development of the Eurasian transport space under the influence of the Chinese strategy “One Belt One Road”. After officially announcing the initiative of the OBOR in 2013 and the subsequent series of visits that Chinese leader Xi Jinping made to the Central Asian republics, the diplomatic status of relations between China and the republics of the region has increased to the level of strategic partnership. The format of this partnership continues to evolve, new agreements and contracts are signed, which further connects with the Chinese economy and further deepens the relationship. Programs of subsidizing various types of economic activity, which are considered a priority for the state at certain stages, are very typical for China. This fully applies to the modernization of transport, increasing its efficiency and environmental friendliness. The most extensive subsidy programs were implemented by China specifically for the modernization of sea freight. China's plans to strengthen its positions in the Suez Canal zone, as well as the volume of investments in the development of sea transportation, indicate that land freight has not yet become a priority for the PRC. Meanwhile, the geography of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Agreement on the interface with the Chinese project allow it to count on the status of the land transit territory for goods sent by the China-EU-China route.
p. 96-101
The role of transnational companies and foreign direct investment in the development of the modern Vietnamese economy
S. Glinkina, M. Turaeva
The modern tendencies of development of economy of Vietnam are considered in the article. The special attention is paid to the foreign economic line. The increased presence of transnational corporations and increased foreign investment are noted. Contrary to the prevailing before assumptions on the unconditional empowerment of the country as the recipient of foreign direct investment, the authors, following the development of the empirical research in recent years, believe that the situation with foreign investment does not only bring a country-recipient some benefit and development but also threatens with certain long-term negative effects. The situation with the influx to Vietnam of direct and portfolio investment is analyzed by the authors. There is an active support of foreign investment by the state; that has led to record investments into the economy of the country. The prospects of the national program of privatization of state-owned enterprises and IPO of large companies are considered. The Vietnamese leadership intends to use these tools to solve the problems of budget deficit and high public debt. The article also reveals the role of transnational corporations in the GDP formation and export of Vietnam. Due to its geographical position and support of the state in investment activities, Acknowledgment: The article has been prepared with the financial support of the Russian State Russian Federation.
p. 78-84
The Eurasian economic union and vietnam: prospects for trade and investment cooperation enforsement
M.O. TURAEVA
The article under review continues the topic started in the “Public Administration” Journal (No. 5 for 2016) on possible prospects for investment cooperation development of the Eurasian Economic Union with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. The initial results are analyzed (after the ratification of Free trade zone agreement between the EEU and Vietnam). The trade structure peculiarities are considered. The author also discusses prospects of development of bilateral investment relations taking into account forecasts of economic growth. Vietnam is demonstrating sustainable successful economic development and will continue doing so in the medium term. Crucially, it also happens against the background of a general slowdown of the global economy and poor performance of investments. The bilateral negotiations with the EEU member-countries actively initiated by Vietnam immediately after signing the agreement demonstrate the intention of the Vietnamese side not to limit itself only to the Russian market. The production and trade orientation of Vietnam is mostly aimed at servicing the global chain of the added value, because, by importing into Vietnam raw materials and components and then exporting finished goods in the form of high-precision equipment, electronics or textiles, trans-national corporations can reduce considerably their costs. As for the agriculture and food industry, Vietnam is an active participant of the global agricultural value chains with a very high proportion of exports.
