Forecast of the structure of the population of Moscow for the period up to 2022

Abstract

The article analyzes statistical data describing demographic trends in part of dynamics of changes in the structure of the population of Moscow. The authors consider the peculiarities of forecasting of number and structure of the population of Moscow, related to urban development and migration processes. The difference between Moscow and other cities in the Russian Federation in the forecast of demographic trends is emphasized in the article. For the first time the prognosis of the structure and population of Moscow is made for the medium term (5 years) taking into account not only demographic, but also migration trends on the basis of retrospective analysis of demographic trends forecast for the previous 3 years. The article considers the effect of forecast changes in the structure of the population of Moscow on consumption of socially important services. The fertility decline is associated with socio economic factors and with a reduction in the number of women of reproductive age. The steady growth in the period under review is projected in the number of population under working age and of retirement age and the gradual reduction of Moscow's citizens of working age. The biggest risk for the economy is the predictable decline of nearly two hundred and fifty thousand in the number of Moscow residents of the most active working age. The number of children to be provided with schools will systematically increase, and the number of preschool general education institutions will, on the contrary, reach a peak in 2020 and then begin declining systematically. The results of the study can be used for forecasting the budget expenditure (both values and structures) in the state programs of the city of Moscow ‘Development of healthcare of the city of Moscow', ‘Development